So much for the cannons in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine

A friend told me that Russia and Ukraine will definitely fight, Russia itself may not want to fight, but the United States will use various ways to force it to fight over…

Actually, I’m not sure. What is the definition of “fight”?

If, as is currently the case, both sides accuse each other of firing in eastern Ukraine, if this is the so-called “fight”, I suspect that Russia and Ukraine have already “fight”, and will probably continue to “fight”.

If the definition is a large Russian army moving into Ukraine and fighting the Ukrainian government forces on a large scale, I think it’s very difficult to fight a war. Even if a fight does break out, it will be quickly negotiated.

Now the climax of the conflict has come, with Russian President Vladimir Putin signing an agreement to recognize the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Loans People’s Republic, as well as a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two republics.

Although truth is only within the range of artillery, in the case of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the climax is likely to mean that the intensity of the conflict is over. With the Russian army moving into eastern Ukraine, the “civilian armed forces” of Russia and Ukraine can basically quit the game.

Why?

Xing Ll, a famous statesman and strategist in Chinese history, once put forward seven main objectives for fighting a war:

“To be brave, to stop violence, to jig up troops, to keep large, to get good results, to calm the people, to be peaceful with the masses, and to enrich wealth

(The army is used to fight, to stop violence, to eliminate war, to stay strong, to determine success, to settle people, to reconcile disputes, to increase wealth).

Against these seven goals, we can look at Russia or Ukraine today. Can they achieve any of these goals if they wage war?

In 2014, under the supervision of France and Germany, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement in the Belarusian capital Minsk for a ceasefire in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Loans and Donetsk, and for a high degree of autonomy in the two regions. This is known as the New Minsk Agreements. The deal broadly satisfied the interests of Germany, France and Russia at the expense of Ukraine as a whole.

Since then, eastern Ukraine as a whole has been a self-governing state under Russian control, which the West knows, Russia knows, Ukraine knows, and the rest of the world knows. Now, Putin has simply brought the matter to light, which in international affairs and disputes is called a fait accompli.

Europe and Ukraine lost some face, but it didn’t matter. In theory, there must be symbolic sanctions against Russia. But Russia has been given face and is ready for sanctions, but any leader who understands it will take what he needs, and this is the climax of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Let us assume, as some do, that the conflict will continue to worsen, with further war and Russian annexation of Ukraine. What are the seven principles of the Bear Brigade?

First of all, no matter whether Ukraine, Russia or the EU, once the war starts, the four objectives of stopping violence, JI Jib, JI Jib, and JI Jib will be lost immediately, and there is no end in sight in a short time.

It doesn’t matter. There are still three goals, namely, maintaining the university, ensuring the success and enriching the wealth.

With Ukraine, if war does break out, Russia’s formidable military will almost certainly lose eastern Ukraine, no matter how far the war goes. It’s not being big. It’s being arrogant enough to get killed! Losing Crimea was already a shame for Ukraine. Losing Loans and Donetsk would be the square of shame. It is the opposite of “fixed success”. In addition, modern wars destroy wealth. If a war is fought, let alone rich, Ukraine will be turned into Africa.

The following is a comparison of Russian and Ukrainian military forces, but Ukraine is actually worse — because, in the 2014 civil war, Ukraine’s military composition, in fact, has been completely destroyed. And the Golden Eagle Special Forces, once famous in the Soviet era, defected in 2014 and joined Russia together with Crimea. What do you ask Ukraine to fight? With the aid of the United States, Britain and Poland

From the EU’s point of view, unless they themselves are willing to send troops to fight Russia, Ukraine will surely be killed by polar bears, and then EU territory will be directly bordering Russia. Would it feel better to face a polar bear? What’s more, because the EU as a whole is very dependent on external energy, Russia is the biggest seller, and energy prices have been rising recently, at this time, to provoke Russia, let the price of oil several times, will the EU in the future to drink the wind?

A further question arises: are Germany and France willing to commit troops to Ukraine? After all, under the aegis of the United States (NATO), the whole of Western Europe has been living for decades, and welfares has been eroding the courage and ambition of Western European countries to conquer the world. Would the EU be so stupid to send troops to fight a big one for a fool now? Doesn’t it smell good to keep Ukraine as a shield, as a gate, as a buffer zone for Europe?

Almost the same is true for Russia, which, despite its relatively powerful military, would be virtually impossible to safely occupy all of Ukraine with the intervention of the European Union and the United States. What’s more, after the occupation, how to rule, more is a big trouble? When Russia couldn’t handle an Afghanistan, how could it handle a big European country like Ukraine?

What’s more, as I said before, any modern war is a competition that burns money, industrial base and economic potential. Then, consider further the size of the Russian economy, which in 2021 will be less than a province in China. In this case, if Russia really invaded Ukraine, the three goals of maintaining great power, achieving success and enriching wealth will only have extreme opposite results.

Not to mention, in this day and age, in defiance of world opinion, to invade another sovereign neighbor recognized by the world, what would be the result? The last country to do that was Iraq under Saddam!

Under these circumstances, Putin would have to be really mad to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Someone said the United States still want to cheat how to do?

The European Union and Russia are among the top 5 players in the geopolitical game in the world today (the other 3 are also listed in the table above). If they play the game of conflict and are hobbled by the US, what is the point of fooling around?

Ukraine should remember the Russo-Japanese war in Qing territory;

Russia should have thought of the end result of Japan’s creation of Manchukuo;

The EU should remember how the first and Second World wars were fought;

Even the incendiary global hegemon, the US, must wonder how it got into the Korean, Vietnam and, more recently, Afghanistan wars. And how did the British Empire fall from its once rock-solid position of world supremacy?

If they had, I personally don’t think they would have chosen to escalate the conflict further.

As the saying goes, cannon are worth its weight in gold. Just because of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the performance of gold, very excited. Russia, on the other hand, is one of the world’s top three oil producers (along with Saudi Arabia and the United States), so crude has been more excited than gold. But I personally think that as the tide of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine recedes, these two overexcited breeds will probably calm down a bit.

At the end of the day, instead of focusing on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, I suspect that many people are more concerned about another issue:

Who is the famous statesman and military strategist Xing Lu? Why have I never heard of it?!

Xing Lu was King Zhan of Chu, one of the five overlords of the spring and Autumn Period.

— Are you still not impressed?

Well, you know the idiom, “Once it’s gone, it’s gone

Yes, the Bear Brigade.

 

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *