Only bit coin is left

From late September/early October to now, almost all of the major asset classes we are familiar with, in dollar terms, have gone up.

Even those who usually situation a very small range of volatility of various international currencies, in addition to the euro rose slightly, others such as the yen, the pound, its exchange rate relative to the dollar, basically rose by more than 10%.

U.S. Treasuries, which is a market of up to 30 trillion U.S. dollars, with the decline in yields on 10-year Treasury bonds, the price of U.S. 20-year and 30-year long-term Treasury bonds rose by more than 15 percent, basically.

Treasuries are considered “risk-free assets”, so let’s look at the world’s most important risk assets – U.S. stocks.

The representative S&P 500 index, at the end of September and the beginning of October, has been swinging around 3600 points, and now it has reached 3900 points, which is about 10% higher.


In addition to A-shares outside our familiar Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Sang Index rose from 14,600 points to the current 2150 points, a range of more than 30%, and the Hang Sang Technology Index, but from 2720 points all the way up to the current 4600, up as much as 70%. late September to early November, I have been highly recommended to buy the Hang Sang China Enterprises Index, from 4900 points to the current 7300 points, an increase of nearly The Hang Sang China Enterprise Index, which I have been strongly recommending people to buy, has risen from 4,900 points to 7,300 points, an increase of nearly 50%.

The big a shares, although not so raw as Hong Kong stocks, to the CSI 300 index, also rose from 3,500 points to now more than 4,000 points, up more than 10%.

There is also an important asset – gold, also from $ 1650 / ounce to $ 1880 / ounce, the same is up more than 10%……

Even the price of copper, in which people usually do not invest much, has risen by more than 20% from its low point at the end of September.

In short, the end of September and early October so far, in addition to crude oil basically did not rise or fall, other global trading, the dollar-denominated major asset classes, almost all rose, less rose by about 10%, more than 50%.

However, there is one asset that has basically not risen, and that is –

Crypto currency assets

Take Bit coin for example, from the end of September to now, Bit coin has not only not gone up, but has fallen by about 10%.

Not only that, but bit coin options volatility has continued to remain at its lowest position in recent years, with the IV for one-month term bit coin ATM options falling to around 35%, the IV for three-month term ATM options falling to 45%, and the IV for six-month ATM options falling to all-time lows like 50%.

The last time this was the case was 2 1/2 years ago.

The recent bit coin price is about as high as a dead man’s ECG……

Why is the price of Bit coin, and crypto currencies in general, the way it is?

For those interested, you can click on the following article.

The Wave of Serial Bankruptcies in the Crypto currency World

Deadly Leverage

The Biggest Bankruptcy……

The really big trouble

I really don’t know, at this time, if anyone is willing to pay a little bit of cost and bet with me.

The core feature of Bit coin is “decentralization”, which enables trust without a trusted center. When we use Aliped, We Chat, or bank transfers, we essentially need to trust a central institution that will keep our books. Our money transactions are essentially just a change of numbers in the books of this central institution. This has several huge drawbacks. On the one hand, if the central institution’s books were destroyed, everyone’s money would go up in smoke and the financial system would collapse. On the other hand, the central institution also controls all those who use the ledger by controlling it. The hegemony of the dollar, the shrinking wealth of the people due to inflation, the harvesting of financial predators, and the control of the common people by the ruling class and vested interests are all achieved by this centralized ledger. All kinds of human wealth disparity and class oppression are also essentially because of this rule-making and rule-using advantage of the upper class. The emergence of bit coin means that we don’t need to trust a central institution anymore, we just need to run the bit coin program, and the people who run the bit coin program all over the world are connected into a network, and they can automatically maintain a real and reliable, completely consistent ledger all over the world. The implications for money, finance, the Internet, and even human organization are undoubtedly disruptive. It is similar to a world currency, similar to breaking the boundaries of borders, nationalities, and skin color, and building a community of human destiny around the world. At the same time, the emergence of Bit coin has also undoubtedly greatly affected the original political landscape of mankind, which means that money can no longer be controlled by the authorities, people can completely bypass the powers that be, and truly have the autonomy to store, carry, and use their own wealth freely, and freely communicate with people on the other side of the world to establish trade and commerce. On the one hand, this will breed chaos such as money laundering, black market, etc. On the other hand, it is also a great liberation for human beings, comparable to the communist idea.


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