“On Protracted War” should be reviewed for the end of Russia-Ukraine War.

It has been more than half a year since the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

From the beginning, when Russia was overwhelming and Ukraine was helpless, to the victory in Kiev, to the stalemate, to the recent Russian fiasco near Kharkov…

Defense phase;

Phase of stalemate;

The stage of counterattack and final victory

Why are there subjugation theories?

At that time, China was inferior in weapons, military, industry and technology. Its coast would be occupied and its coastline would be blockaded, so China would be defeated and would fall.

“China is a huge country. Even if Japan can occupy an area of China with 10,000 to 200 million people, we are far from defeat. We still have a great deal of power to fight against Japan, and Japan will have to defend her rear at all times throughout the war. The disunity and imbalance of China’s economy are beneficial to the war of Resistance against Japanese aggression. Cutting off Shanghai from the rest of China, for example, would never damage China as much as cutting off New York from the rest of the United States. Japan is blockading the coast of China. It cannot blockade the northwest, southwest and west of China.”

Why the quick-win theory?

At that time, people believed that if China could hold out for more than three months, the international situation would change, the Soviet Union would send troops, and the war would be resolved and Japan would lose.

“It (Japan) is a strong imperialist country. Its military, economic and political organization is the first in the East, and it is also one of the five or six famous imperialist countries in the world. This is the basic condition of Japan’s war of aggression. The inevitability of the war and the impossibility of China’s quick victory are based on the imperialist system of this Japanese nation and its strong military, economic and political organizational power.”

We (China) are a semi-colonial and semi-feudal country. From the Opium War, the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, the Hundred Days’ Reform, the Revolution of 1911, to the Northern Expedition, all the revolutionary or reformist movements to remove the semi-colonial and semi-feudal status suffered serious setbacks, so the semi-colonial and semi-feudal status was still retained. We are still a weak nation. We are inferior to the enemy in military power, economic power and political organization.

Japan is a powerful and industrial country with strong military, economic and political organization. However, at the same time, this war of aggression is regressive, barbaric and against human justice. With the development of the war of aggression, Japan is bound to face shortages of human and material resources, and the international situation will be unfavorable to Japan in the long run, because Japan’s war of aggression has lost respect and little support in the international community.

In contrast, although China is a weak country with a relatively weak army, economy and political organization, its war of resistance against Japanese aggression is just and progressive and has received the help of the major countries in the world. Moreover, China has a large territory, natural resources, large population and large troops, which will enable it to support a long-term war.

In the strategic defense phase, the main task was to defeat the enemy’s plan for quick victory, and then to establish a broad anti-Japanese united front. At the same time, it was necessary to carry out sports and positional warfare. As long as the Chinese people worked together, the Sino-Japanese war would be dragged into the “stalemate phase.”

At the stage of stalemate, due to the shortage of the enemy’s troops and our firm resistance, the enemy will have to decide on the end of its strategic attack to a certain extent. When it reaches this end, it will cease its strategic attack and turn to the stage of conservative occupation of the territory. The main task of the Chinese army and people at this stage is to carry out guerrilla warfare behind enemy lines and mobilize the whole nation to stick to the war in unwavering unity. The united front should be expanded and consolidated, all pessimism and compromise should be eliminated, and new wartime policies should be adopted to overcome this difficult journey: “Whether China will become an independent country or become a colony depends not on the loss of major cities in the first stage, but on the level of the whole nation’s efforts in the second stage.”

With the ebb and flow of enemy forces, China’s war of resistance against Japanese aggression will enter a stage of Chinese counterattack, in which China will recover all the territory it has lost, relying mainly on the strength it has prepared in the previous stage and continues to develop in the present stage. However, its own strength is not enough. It must also rely on international forces and the assistance of the internal changes of enemy states. Otherwise, it cannot win, which increases the task of China’s international propaganda and diplomatic work.

However, due to the United States continued to attack Japan with high intensity, and the Soviet Union’s last minute invasion of northeast China, the final stage of Chinese counteroffensive victory came a little too soon, and the Japanese invaders were defeated mainly by international forces.

Before the outbreak of a full-scale war with Ukraine, I had assumed that Mr. Putin would not choose all-out war with Ukraine — because a failed one would serve neither Russia’s interests nor those of the powers that be.

However, when the war between Russia and Ukraine really broke out, I believe that if Russia could not win quickly from the beginning, then Russia would only gain defeat in the end.

In all wars of asymmetrical power, as long as the relatively weak side can drag the other side into the “stalemate stage”, then the side forced into the “stalemate stage” will eventually end in defeat.

Given the advances in modern weaponry and the development of the media, all the history of local wars since the end of the Second World War has shown that any great power (even a superpower such as the United States or the Soviet Union) who does not win a battle against a weak power within three months or achieve a smooth withdrawal of its troops will ultimately be doomed to defeat.

Refining on Protracted War, I have divided the forces that determine the outcome of modern wars into three categories:

1) Its own strength comparison;

2) Contrast of war will;

3) Comparison of international aid.

When war broke out in 1937, China was far less powerful on its own than Japan (Japan produced 5.8m tons of steel a year, for example, compared with China’s 40,000 tones; Japan produces 50.7 million tons of coal annually, while China produces 28 million tons. Japan’s annual output of oil is 1.69 million tons, while China’s is only 13,100 tons, and the per capita GDP calculated according to industrial output is 20 times that of China) — the power gap between China and Japan determines that it is difficult for China to “win quickly”.

On the other hand, the formation of the anti-Japanese united front means that the whole nation has reached a consensus on the resistance will, with special emphasis on “never waver in the war”. This means that once China’s war will has reached a consensus of the whole nation, it will be extremely tenacious and vigorous. In addition, we are fighting in our own territory, although we are not strong enough. But our will for war is much stronger than Japan’s.

 

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