The Iron Curtain falls, the new Cold War opens

On March 5, 1946, Winston Leonard Spencer Churchill, the recently departed British Prime Minister, accompanied by U.S. President Harry S. Truman, arrived in Fulton, Missouri, at Truman’s alma mater, Westminster College, to deliver a speech entitled “A Pillar of Peace. -Westminster College, delivered a speech entitled “A Pillar of Peace.

In his speech, Churchill openly attacked the Soviet Union’s policy of “expansion” and declared.

“From Stettin on the Baltic Sea to Trieste on the Adriatic, an iron curtain has fallen across the continent of Europe”.

Churchill also said.

Behind this line lie the capital cities of the ancient countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Warsaw, Berlin, Prague, Vienna, Budapest, Belgrade, Bucharest, and Sofia – all these weathered cities and their inhabitants are within the Soviet sphere of influence and are not only subject, in one form or another, to Soviet influence, but also to the increasingly oppressive control of Moscow . Only Athens, radiating its immortal glory, is free to decide its future in the eyes of every one of England, America and France.

Half a century after the Iron Curtain speech, in 1997, Zbigniew Brzezinski, the most famous American hawkish strategist since Kissinger and a Jew of Polish descent, published a book entitled “The Great Game: America’s Primacy and its Geostrategic,” which examined the possible future of American hegemony. In this book, he argues that

The first form of alliance is the China-Japan-South Korea alliance in East Asia.

Brzezinski believes that China, Japan and South Korea are the closest in race, culture and geography, especially Japan and South Korea are influenced by Confucian culture, and want to communicate and cooperate much easier than with other countries, plus demographic, economic and military complementarity, if China, Japan and South Korea form an alliance, for the U.S. global hegemony, will be a fatal blow.

The second form of alliance is the Greater European Union, which includes Russia.

Russia has rich oil and natural gas resources, and Western European countries have advanced technology, talents and huge consumer markets, which happen to form a complementary, if the Greater European Union is formed, it may challenge the hegemony of the United States.

However, after analyzing the deep-rooted conflicts between China, Japan and South Korea, Britain, France and Germany and Russia, Brzezinski believes that the possibility of the formation of the first two alliances is very low, and it is difficult to really challenge the hegemony of the United States, and in the first half of the 21st century, the real threat to the hegemony of the United States is the third alliance – the China-Russia-Iran alliance.

China in East Asia, Russia in northern Eurasia, and Iran at the crossroads of Eurasia are geopolitically closely linked, and once these three countries form an alliance to look after each other, both Russia and Iran can become China’s raw material suppliers. With huge energy security, Chinese industry and cutting-edge industries will rise, and the products produced in China will feed Iran and Russia, and a RMB-dominated currency system may prevail in East and Central Asia, which will also shake the hegemony of the US dollar.

In the words of Brzezinski’s book, “The greatest potential danger to the United States is the formation of a grand alliance between China and Russia, and perhaps Iran, and the reason for this ‘anti-hegemony’ alliance is not ideology, but a mutually complementary dissatisfaction with the United States.”

Brzezinski was an authority on American geopolitics when he was alive, enjoying the title of America’s “Three Masters of State” along with Huntington and Kissinger, because their advance judgments on geopolitics and changes in the international order have always been verified by history one by one.

Since 2020, as Brzezinski said, China, Russia and Iran are being strategically squeezed together in an increasingly aggressive and populist-compromising repressive behavior by the United States in the process of maintaining hegemony, which is increasingly taking on the nature of an “alliance”.

In October 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin said of Russian-Chinese relations.

A military alliance between Russia and China is theoretically possible, but in practice the level of strategic mutual trust and collaboration between the two countries has reached such a high level that the two sides do not need such an alliance in principle.

In early 2021, Wang Yi, then State Councilor and Foreign Minister, speaking about Russian-Chinese relations, said.

There is no end to China-Russia strategic cooperation, no forbidden zone, and no upper limit.

On the eve of the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited China and formed the Joint Declaration of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on International Relations and Sustainable Global Development in the New Era, representing the beginning of mutual coordination of their domestic and foreign affairs.

In August 2021, Iran said it had cleared the political hurdles to joining the SCO, and in September of the same year, the SCO summit launched the process of admitting Iran as a full member.

Since October 2022, media reports have continued to emerge about the extensive use of Iranian drones by Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian war, implying that Iran and Russia have begun to work closely together militarily.

On February 16, 2023, the Joint Declaration of the People’s Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Iran was released, reaching a five-point consensus on political, anti-terrorism, military, economic, scientific, educational and cultural cooperation.

In this way, under the continuous suppression of the United States, China, Russia and Iran really came together, and Brzezinski’s “prophecy” 25 years ago came true.

With the release of the Sino-Iranian joint statement, from the Russian-Finnish border in Northern Europe to the front line of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and from Syria and Iran to Pakistan and China, the “iron curtain” of a new Cold War in Eurasia has fallen (the thick red line in the picture below).

Churchill’s “Iron Curtain Speech” in 1946, officially opened the first Cold War of mankind.

On March 12, 1947, Truman delivered a message to a joint session of both houses of Congress, declaring that

All nations in the world today are faced with the choice of two different ways of life. One is a free system based on the will of the majority, and the other is a centralized system of government based on the imposition of the will of the majority, and U.S. policy must support those free nations whose people resist the armed minority.

Truman also emphasized.

“Wherever direct or indirect aggression threatens the peace, it is relevant to the security of the United States.”

“The introduction of the Truman Doctrine marked the beginning of the Cold War, and in 1948 the Marshall Plan, a U.S. aid to the European economy, was launched, with the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries refusing to participate. In 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was established, which meant that Britain and the United States were determined to deter and contain the Soviet Union by military means.

In 1955, under the leadership of the Soviet Union, the Soviet Union and the Eastern European countries established the Warsaw Pact to confront the NATO military bloc, which marked the formal formation of a bipolar pattern.

Both the U.S. and the Soviet Union were responsible for the creation of the Cold War, because they both wanted to “lead the world” and “dictate the direction of human development”. The U.S. and Britain wanted Eastern Europe to become the so-called “free world,” while the Soviet Union would never allow the U.S. to interfere in its own sphere of influence, which it had bought with blood and force.

The United States wanted to concern itself with and expand its economic interests, while the Soviet Union wanted to safeguard its security interests.

That the United States wanted to promote capitalism, including Western values and lifestyles, throughout the world

That the Soviet Union was to introduce socialism throughout the world, including the introduction of proletarian revolutions and national liberation movements

At the same time, as a generation that had experienced the tragic Second World War, the leaders of the United States and the Soviet Union also agreed that direct war between the two sides must be avoided, but a series of fundamental contradictions between their strategic goals, strategic visions, conflicting strategic interests and the opposition between the two systems of socialism and capitalism would inevitably lead the former anti-fascist allies to turn against each other.

The Cold War was inevitable, and the Truman administration’s policy of containing the Soviet Union was the direct cause of the Cold War.

 

 

 

 

 

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