Is Japan going to collapse?

Talk of a Japanese economic meltdown is suddenly growing.

Like the famous Lu Keen classmates, a mouth is Japan is in danger…

Or, some highlight their understanding of finance and economics, simply say that Japanese stocks and bonds exchange three kill, and was cut hemp…

Or, more closely to the market, a “big showdown” between traders and the Bank of Japan, a bond plunge triggering a circuit breaker…

Take the plunge in the price of Japanese government bonds as the trigger for the circuit breaker. If you look at the price change of Japanese government bond futures, the “circuit breaker” mentioned above refers to the price of Japanese government bond futures, which fell from 147.4 yen to 145.5 yen, “plunging 1.36%”. If you want to blame, you can only blame Japan for the past decade, the price of Japanese government bonds has stabilized. So new to the world that even a 1.36% drop will be “circuitous”.

In fact, on the day of the “crash circuit breaker”, the price of JGBS stayed at 145 yen for only 2 or 3 hours. Today, the price of JGBS has risen back to 148.5 yen.

Understanding the so-called “plunge circuit breaker” in Japanese government bonds, let’s look at the “plunge” in Japanese stocks.

From the peak of more than 29,000 at the beginning of the year, the “slump” for nearly half a year, fell back to the current 26500, the deepest decline, that is, 10% of the appearance, any of us who have made a share to say, this in the end is not called the “stock market slump”?

It is true that the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar has fallen a lot, but it is only a big drop of the yen at most. These financial media conclude that Japan has been “cut off” and put a big financial problem on Japan that is terrifying:

Stock bond exchange three kills!

Kill, kill, kill, kill, and kill your head!

For those who don’t know, Japan is Argentina or Venezuela.

Turkey now has an inflation rate of 70%, and I don’t see you using such excited terms.

More alarmists are the words of Mr. Lucien.

It is said in this article that China is not afraid of being jammed, but if Japan is jammed, it will immediately break out of power, famine, and people will die in batches, even worse than North Korea… In addition, Japan is particularly vulnerable to collapse because of its geography. It can’t be stopped…

Ah, does Master Lu have common sense after all?!

According to many people, Japan became a “colony” of the United States at the end of World War II. But when did colonial Japan suffer power outages, famines and deaths in droves? Die worse than North Korea?

After all, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programmed, North Korea experienced 15 catastrophes in just 15 years from 1996 to 2010, most of them entirely man-made — including the so-called “March of Misery” in 1994-1997 alone, which starved more than 3 million people, about 15% of North Korea’s population at the time… Even now, the average height of South Koreans of the same language and species is more than 15 centimeters taller than that of North Koreans.

Japan’s death from starvation is worse than Korea’s. Japan must starve to at least 15 million people.

In fact, globalized trade has been the norm of the world since the age of navigation, and unless a nation wants to “isolate itself from the world,” it must depend on other nations in many ways. This does not mean that being “stuck” in the neck will lead to famine and death in batches. In the words of Hamartia, a Nobel economist who specializes in poverty and famine:

“In the appalling history of world famine, there has never been a real mass famine in a country where the rights of its citizens are guaranteed and the freedom of the press is guaranteed.”

In the 120 years from 1900 to the present, whether it was the great famine in Ukraine 100 years ago or the famine in Korea 30 years ago, the core nature of the disaster was man-made.

Even if we assume that Japan is now blocked by all the countries of the world, with the technology that the Japanese now possess and the conditions of the land in Japan, as long as the government of Japan does not try to completely control the people and allow free trade, the land in Japan will be enough to produce enough food to feed all the people in Japan.

If you want Japan to starve to death in batches, you first have to let the world blockade Japan, then, agricultural production and land completely controlled by the government, and then implement rationing throughout the country, at the same time, implement strict censorship of any media news reports, do not allow any foreigners to know about Japan’s food production and hunger problems, and do not allow any citizens to discuss this matter to “discredit” Japan…

It was Venezuela’s Chavez-Madura government that did the same, but it took more than a decade to make a famine happen in Venezuela, which had not had a famine in 200 years, and it would be more than a decade before Japan starved its people in droves.

Moreover, Master Lu’s statement that geography made Japan particularly vulnerable to collapse and collapse at once seemed to be grossly inconsistent with history. Since Yamato established the first unified regime in the Japanese archipelago, when has Japan collapsed except once during WWII when it was beaten by the US? I asked you when Japan ever collapsed.

Yeah, you know, 30 years ago in Japan, the stock market crashed, real estate prices crashed

But you know what?

In the years following the collapse of the bubble economy, Japan’s international standing, as a proportion of the global size of its economy, hit record highs – precisely indicating that it was the housing and stock market bubbles that collapsed, not the Japanese economy!

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Remember that there was a bad potato with a belly full of selenium, on the one hand saying that Japan was a colony of the United States and that it was inevitable that it would be harvested by the United States, and then the next paragraph brags about how great Japan’s economy was in 1960-1980 — people who don’t know, think Japan did it all on its own for 20 years (1960-1980). Unfortunately, it was colonized by the US, so it was harvested for 40 years…

You see, Japan was colonized by the US for 77 years and harvested by the US for 40 years from 1980, and now Japan’s per capita GDP is still nearly 4 times that of China. Does this mean that the US is not harvesting hard enough, or that Japan is rich, or that China is too weak?

After all, Japan is still the third largest economy in the world, the third largest in terms of annual industrial output and manufacturing output (after China and the United States), and one devaluation of the yen will make Japan worse off than North Korea?

Let’s just say that since the era of the Industrial Revolution, unless it is a world war level war or a drastic political change, there is absolutely no economic collapse in any of the top industrial and manufacturing countries, whether it is the United States, China, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, or even India or South Korea…

It is either ignorant or shameless to talk about the collapse of the United States, China, Japan, Germany and Britain in a modern industrial power because of a very ordinary financial event.

What’s more, just like Bad Potato, such a bastard, to the vast audience unlimited supply of nightshade, infinite arouse people’s hatred of the United States, Japan public account, send an advertisement, but let everyone read the American national geographical English…

Finally, back to our concern about the yen exchange rate

Based on the movement of long-term Treasury yields in the US, I have always believed that the limit of the dollar-yen exchange rates is 135. Only last week, the dollar-yen exchange rates successfully broke 135 and peaked above 136.

Well, I was wrong again.

Japan’s trade deficit has continued for the 10th consecutive month since April, and the trade deficit in May was the second highest since 2014.

Nevertheless, I believe that with the fall in global commodity prices and the peak in long-term US Treasury yields, the spread between Japan and the US has peaked, so the bottom in the yen has been seen.

 

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